There is a problem with politics (as it is practiced) in virtually all the Western democracies, including the United States. The problem is not that Donald J Trump, the US president, is an idiot—although he is. Nor is the problem that his major organized opposition, the Democratic party is delusional—which it is.
The problem is that the way for politicians to get elected is to tell people what they want to hear. And so we get a lot of feel good rhetoric about vague generalities. Or rhetoric about how awful the other guy is. And probably both. Nowhere are their clear statements of principle that anyone can hang their hat on. For instance, all politicians are opposed to deficit spending—when the other guy is in office. But when my people are in office there are vital needs to be met.
As a result, politicians get elected without having the slightest idea of what they will actually do once in office other than to follow the party line, whatever it is at the moment. More importantly, they are blissfully unaware of (or don’t care) what consequences are likely to result from their decisions. As long as the policy can be “spun” to sound good. (Another word for “spin” is lie). But that is a subject for another time.
Anyone who doubts that the parties don’t know or care about the quality of their decisions should put tribal instincts aside and examine the evidence. For instance, after examining the evidence what rational person can actually believe that the imposition of large tariffs will simultaneously increase revenue and decrease imports? Or, how is it possible to increase foreign investment in the United States without simultaneously raising the trade deficit? After all, they are opposite sides of the same coin; one has to balance out the other.
Or, who could possibly believe that public schools in the major cities are actually educating the nation’s children? Or who really believes that sex is simply a matter of choice, which is to say, a social construct? That people can choose the sex they would like to be, physical characteristics, including DNA, aside?
Take the matter of political parties. For the last 50 years or so, the Republican party stood four square for free trade. That is now officially out the window. With rare exceptions (Mitch McConnell being one) elected Republicans publicly back the trade restrictionism of Donald Trump.
Or take Civil Rights. Since the 1960s after throwing off the shackles of its “Solid South” the Democratic Party has claimed to be the Civil Rights party. And yet, when it came to a choice between improving the public schools and backing the teachers’ unions, the party backed the unions every time to the detriment of the students. And to anybody who claims the schools are doing their job: Just look at the history of the test scores.
The point of all this is not an ode to ideological purity. Nor is it that politicians are hypocrites—which by and large, they are. The point is that the political system is giving the public pretty much what it asked for. Which is the illusion of something for nothing. There are no policy trade-offs to consider in this fantasy world, just free stuff.
But the real world has this tendency to (eventually) rear its ugly head. And it appears to be getting ready to do that. Remember when Donald Trump was going to end the Russian war on Ukraine in 24 hours? How is that working out? Remember how Donald Trump (like every other candidate for President) was going to end the deficit? How does that pair up with a pledge not to touch the major deficit drivers, namely Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid?
The bond market might have something to say about fiscal policy. Long term rates have been rising ever since the Fed started easing policy in September of 2024. The Treasury 10-year note and 30-year bond now yield 4.51% and 5.03%. Those yields are higher by about three-quarters of a percent and 1 percent respectively.
And now for the Democrats, the party that voted against NAFTA and every other free trade measure that came down the pike over the last 50 years. Not only are they firmly in denial over the 2024 election; they are now all-of-a-sudden resolutely opposed to Trump’s tariffs. Not to tariffs generally speaking, but Trump’s tariffs. (There is that pesky principles thing again.) Actually Joe Biden, when he was nominally in charge, kept Trump’s tariffs and added some more trade blocks.
And speaking of Joe Biden, remember when various spokesmen for the party claimed that Old Joe was “sharp as a tack” and ready to run for another 4 years. Until the debate meltdown when Biden’s decline became irrefutable and it became CYA time. And how about the way the Washington Post defended Biden—that is the newspaper that continues to run the banner “Democracy Dies in Darkness” on the front page. The newspaper that ran column after column attacking Robert Hur, the special prosecutor, as a partisan hack. Perhaps a little throat clearing is in order here.
And Democrats are really, really upset over DOGE. Why? Despite the claims (some legitimate) about the lack of due process, they want to spend even more money on various government give aways. Due process and the rule of law be damned. There is, for instance, the matter of the student loan give aways that were repeatedly slapped down by the courts, including the Supreme Court. But it didn’t stop the effort.
So we have met the enemy and the enemy is us. And it is getting pretty late if we want to turn the boat around.
JFB
