The Wall Street Journal ran a story this morning about the recent end, for now, of the war in Gaza. The headline of the story, which read After Israeli Withdrawal, Hamas Launches Violent Crackdown on Rivals in Gaza would seem to be self explanatory. And in a sense it is.
The Wall Street Journal went on to report that
“As Israeli troops pulled back…Hamas surged security forces in behind them—a public assertion of authority intended to make clear the group remains the enclave’s governing power.”
That, by the way, is the Hamas that was supposed to disarm and relinquish any governing power over Gaza.
The Journal went on to report that:
“Videos…show Hamas fighters dragging a number of men from [a rival] family into a public square in broad daylight, forcing them to kneel and executing them in front of a crowd of onlookers.”
Please, can someone remind me, is that the Hamas that protesters claimed was protecting Palestinian rights. Is it the same Hamas that was supposed to disarm as an integral part of the cease-fire arrangement? When queried about that, President Trump made the following assertion:
“They’re going to disarm…and if they don’t disarm, we will disarm them.”
Does anyone really believe that? If so, I’d like to know who that person is. Who, for instance, believes that the United States is going to send US troops to fight what effectively amounts to a guerrilla war in Gaza? Especially with the goal of establishing control and asserting authority over the area? That strategy produced a colossal failure in Vietnam and more recently in Iraq. Which, not to put too fine a point on it, Trump claimed to oppose.
The reality is that the US has no desire—none— to try to establish control over Gaza. Not now, not ever. So let’s make the heroic assumption that President Trump made the sudden discovery that telling the truth is important. Then the relevant question is: what does he (Trump) mean by “we” as in “we” are going to disarm them? Who exactly does he have in mind? Egypt? Does he really believe that Egypt is capable and willing to disarm Hamas? And does he really believe that Egypt (or any other predominantly Muslim country) would attempt to disarm Hamas without the involvement of US troops?
H.R. McMaster, who briefly served as National Security Advisor in the first Trump Administration, analyzed the cease-fire and came to these conclusions.
- He describes the cease fire as a “temporary truce”, with no clear path for resolving the underlying issues, which includes Gaza’s postwar governance.
- He voiced the opinion that the chance that Hamas would voluntarily disarm as “pretty near zero.”
- He predicted more military action saying that Israel “is going to have to destroy” Hamas.
It is this writer’s opinion that McMaster’s observations will appear to be prescient, possibly in the near future. Because if Hamas is allowed to keep its arms and then reasserts control over Gaza, Israel’s war aims will not have been met. Neither will US aims have been met. US backing, including the destruction of Iran’s nuclear buildup, will have been for nought. Not only that, before too long, we will find ourselves right back in the same place we were in before.
Except that Hamas will have had time to regroup. And Israel will have to militarily destroy what is now a battle hardened Hamas. All of which assumes (1) that Israeli political leaders stop the game of trying to “manage” the conflict by playing the Islamist groups off one another, (2) that US political leaders suddenly develop a spine and back Israel to the hilt, and (3) China has not moved on Taiwan.
So I would wait before popping the champagne corks. A lot can still go very badly wrong.
JFB
